TMC Stock: Price & Latest News – What Reddit is Saying

[Generated Title]: TMC's CFO Sounds Confident, But Does the Math Add Up?

The Metals Company (TMC) is once again making headlines, this time thanks to CFO Craig Shesky's bold pronouncements about short sellers facing "a very bad day." The stock jumped nearly 24% after-hours following his comments, adding to a year where TMC has seen gains as high as 854% before a significant pullback. But let's cut through the noise and examine the core question: Does Shesky's optimism hold water under the cold light of data?

Shesky's Thesis: Cash, Regulation, and Resource Value

Shesky's argument, as reported across multiple outlets, rests on three pillars: a strong cash position, progress with regulators, and the inherent value of TMC's polymetallic nodule assets. He specifically called out the 13.7% of shares held short, questioning their rationale (a figure that translates to roughly 25 million shares, according to reports). The Metals Company (TMC) Stock Jumps 24% on CFO’s “Short Squeeze” Comments

Let's start with cash. TMC ended Q3 with $115 million in the bank. That's not chump change, but their Q3 net loss was a hefty $184.5 million, compared to just $20.5 million the year before. The runway, at the current burn rate, isn't as long as Shesky implies. Analyst Dmitry Silversteyn at Water Tower Research suggests TMC might not need additional funding soon. "Might" is the key word there.

Then there's the regulatory angle. Trump's executive order aimed at accelerating deep-sea mining is undoubtedly a tailwind. And ongoing talks with the Department of Energy and the Pentagon are positive signs. But "talks" are just that—talks. There's no guarantee of approvals, and environmental concerns (which are significant and well-documented) could easily derail the entire process.

Finally, we arrive at the $23.6 billion valuation of TMC's underwater resources. This is where things get really interesting. That figure comes from technical assessments published in August. TMC's market cap is around $2 billion. That’s a massive discrepancy. But here's the thing: that $23.6 billion is a net value. It doesn't account for the immense costs associated with extraction, processing, and navigating the complex regulatory landscape.

The Short Seller's Perspective: A Reality Check

What's the short thesis, then? It's not simply betting against TMC's success; it's betting against the timeline and probability of that success, factoring in the risks. Short sellers aren't necessarily irrational actors. They're assessing the same data as the bulls, but they're arriving at a different conclusion about the risk-reward ratio.

I've looked at hundreds of these filings, and the market often discounts future potential based on the present challenges.

The recent pullback in TMC's stock, despite Shesky's confidence, is a case in point. The stock surged in October on geopolitical tensions related to rare earth exports, but quickly corrected as those tensions eased. This highlights the speculative nature of the initial rally (driven by fear) versus the more grounded reality of TMC's fundamental challenges. TMC Stock Attempts Comeback After Rare Earth Hype Faded, Targeting $11

The Deutsche Bank Gold Prediction: A Distraction?

The recent surge in TMC's stock has also been attributed to Deutsche Bank's higher gold price prediction. The bank now projects gold will hit US$4,450/oz in 2026, up from its earlier estimate of US$4,000/oz. While this is certainly positive for the broader rare earth metals sector, it's crucial to remember that TMC's primary focus is on copper, nickel, cobalt, and manganese—not gold. The correlation is tangential at best. It's like saying a rising tide lifts all boats, but some boats are leaky and need constant repairs.

So, What's the Real Story?

Shesky's confidence is a strategic play, designed to put pressure on short sellers and boost investor sentiment. While TMC has made progress, the path to profitability is far from certain. The math suggests that the risks are still substantial, and the market's current valuation reflects that reality. The shorts may yet have their "bad day," but it won't be solely because of Shesky's words; it will depend on TMC's ability to overcome significant financial, regulatory, and environmental hurdles.