Rain: The Data on Risk, Heavy Rain, and Today's Forecast
Generated Title: Weather Whiplash: Why "Normal" Doesn't Exist Anymore
From Thanksgiving Travel Chaos to Indonesian Deluges: A Season of Extremes
The weather forecast is rarely a simple "sunny" or "rainy" anymore, is it? This Thanksgiving week alone, we're seeing a ridiculous spread of potential disruptions across the globe. A potential winter storm threatens the Northeast with a messy mix of snow, ice, and rain, while Southeast Asia is grappling with catastrophic floods and landslides. The common thread? Extremes, and the data suggests we need to recalibrate our definition of "normal."
Let's start stateside. Forecasters are hedging their bets on the East Coast storm, emphasizing the "high level of uncertainty." (That's analyst-speak for "we really don't know what's going to happen.") Computer models predict mostly rain for New York City and coastal areas, but "either snow or a rain/snow mix inland." The National Weather Service is even throwing in the possibility of a switch to all snow further inland as temperatures drop. The core issue isn't whether it will snow, but how much and where. The uncertainty is the story, because it makes logistics impossible to plan.
Meanwhile, in Southeast Asia, the picture is far grimmer. Indonesia is reeling from floods and landslides that have already claimed dozens of lives, with many more missing. According to police data, there have been 148 disaster incidents since November 24th alone. Thailand is battling what's been described as A ‘once-in-300-years’ rain leaves Thai city flooded rain event, with one city recording 335mm (13 inches) of rain in a single day. That’s not a typo. And it’s not just a little bit over average.
The Thanksgiving travel forecast in the US isn't much better. High winds, lake-effect snow, and heavy rain are all expected to cause widespread delays. AccuWeather is warning of wind gusts over 40 mph in major travel hubs like Minneapolis, Chicago, Detroit, and Cleveland. If you're flying, that translates to potential gate delays and cancellations. And if you're driving, be prepared for icy roads and near-zero visibility in some areas.
Digging Into the Data: Is This Really "Unprecedented"?
The question, of course, is whether these events are truly "unprecedented" or simply part of the natural variability of weather patterns. News outlets love to use the term “unprecedented,” but I tend to be wary of the claim. A deeper look is warranted.
Let's take the Thailand floods. A "once-in-300-years" rain event sounds terrifying. But what does that actually mean? It's a statistical projection based on historical data, and it assumes that the underlying climate remains stable. If the climate is changing (and the vast majority of climate scientists agree that it is), then those historical averages become less and less relevant. That “300 years” is just a number, a model output. The real question is how that model accounts for a shifting baseline.
I've looked at hundreds of these disaster reports, and the language is starting to feel… standardized. The same phrases appear again and again: "intense rainfall," "unstable hillsides," "vulnerable communities." Are we simply getting better at reporting these events, or are they actually becoming more frequent and more severe? The data is often incomplete, making it difficult to draw definitive conclusions. But the anecdotal evidence is mounting.
And this is the part of the analysis where I find it genuinely puzzling. Why isn’t there more focus on infrastructure resilience? We know that many vulnerable communities live along riverbanks or near unstable hillsides. We know that heavy rainfall is common in Southeast Asia during the November-March rainy season. So why aren't we investing more in flood defenses, early warning systems, and evacuation plans? The cost of proactive measures is almost certainly lower than the cost of reactive disaster relief.
It’s easy to blame these events on “climate change” and leave it at that. But that’s a cop-out. Climate change may be exacerbating the problem, but it's not the only factor. Poor urban planning, inadequate infrastructure, and a lack of preparedness all play a role. We need to move beyond simply reporting on these disasters and start addressing the underlying vulnerabilities that make them so devastating.